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25 October 11

BCS projections

Just trying to explain college football BCS to my friend, here’s my current (optimistic) projections.  Will check back in December.

BCS Championship Game - LSU (SEC champion) v Stanford (Pac-12 champion)

Sugar Bowl - Alabama (at-large) v Oklahoma State (at-large)

Orange Bowl - Cincinnati (Big East champion) v Virginia Tech (ACC champion)

Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma (Big-12 champion) v Boise State (at-large)

Rose Bowl - Oregon (at-large) v Wisconsin (Big-10 champion)

Notes:

  • The Big-10 title game loser will have at least 2 losses, as Wisconsin/Mich State each already have 1 loss.  I think Mich State loses the rematch, but no guarantees.
  • I’m assuming Oklahoma wins out, and Oklahoma State finishes with one-loss.  For Stanford to get in, it needs an OK State loss.  If Oklahoma finishes with 2 or more losses, that opens the door for the Big-10 loser to get a bid.
  • I’m not a believer in Clemson, and Virginia Tech manages to win those big games when it needs, so I think VT takes the ACC Championship Game.


Scenarios:

If Clemson wins out, they still don’t make the title game over an undefeated Big-12 or Pac-10 team, but they may trump Boise.  Orange Bowl is going to be hard-pressed to avoid an abortion of a game between the ACC and Big East champions.

If Oregon loses a third game, there will be two representatives from Big-12 and Big-10.  SEC is already maxed out, and ACC/Big East won’t be good enough for a second bid.

If Oregon beats Stanford, they go to the Rose Bowl, and a one-loss Stanford still probably goes somewhere (to the Fiesta)

There will be no SEC-title game rematch of LSU/Alabama, unless every remaining major undefeated team (Stanford, Clemson, Kansas State, Oklahoma State) loses, and maybe even Boise.

A Big-10 second team will trump a 1- or 2-loss Kansas State, and possibly a 1-loss Oklahoma State, for the at large bid, since they travel so well.  Don’t sleep on Michigan, they could trump the conference title game loser with 1 loss, maybe even with 2.


Big 12 Scenarios:

I’m not even sure an undefeated Kansas State trumps Boise, so for now he’s here I see it playing out, IF (losses):
k-state (0), ok (2), okst (2) -> k state to fiesta, ok to sugar
k-state (0), ok (3), okst (1) -> k state to fiesta, okst to sugar
k-state (2), ok (1), okst (1) -> ok to fiesta, okstate or b10 loser to sugar
k-state (1), ok (1), okst (2) -> ok to fiesta, b10 loser to sugar
k-state (2), ok (2), okst (0) -> okst to championship, ok to sugar/fiesta
k-state (1), ok (3), okst (0) ->okst to championship, b10 loser to sugar/fiesta

And Missouri wins everything by going to the SEC.

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