Not That Dignified

hey friends, about those new years plans...

you guys wanna go bowling?

just got my phone running again...

excited about the stanford game!

let’s go Toby Kunta Kinte!

bcs sample playoff, week 10

Right now there stand to be as many as 6 undefeated teams, from 4 major conferences, and 2 very legit mid-major contenders.  The system as it stands will let the SEC and B12 fight for the title based solely on past conference accomplishments and preseason uninformed predictions, with no credit given to this season.  Texas may be the best team out there, but they have played the weakest schedule of the contenders.  Anyhoo.

Based on the 2 models Mark and I have discussed (strictly straight top 8, or 6 confs + 2 based on selection committee):

Just pre-emptively, both of these cases, especially the latter, make every game completely important, because I know Omar/Chirag/others make that argument against a playoff.

I mean, sure, if you’re up 2 games in your conference then you know you’re in on the last day of the season, but don’t 8-3 Pittsburgh type teams who already have their Fiesta Bowl birth locked up, with nothing more to play for?  You’re still playing for seeding.  If you ever don’t win your conference, you’re playing for just 2 (!) at larges available, and at the whim of a selection committee (which will be fairer than the voters, who mostly reward big name schools who started off highly ranked).

top 8: Fla-UT-Bama-Iowa-Cinci-TCU-Boise-Oregon

confs protected: Fla-UT-Iowa-Cinci-Ore-GT-Bama-TCU

playoffs shake out as follows:

Rd1: Christmas day, bottom seeds @ home team stadiums (which lets you have some cold weather games!)

Rd2: New Years day matchups at the Sugar and Orange bowls give you things like Fla-Iowa and Texas-Bama, or Fla-Oregon and Texas-Cinci, and the title games a week later @ the Rose Bowl.  Tell me you wouldn’t be glued to this.

incidentally, I’m ok with no playoffs if we eliminate the BCS illusion and go back to the old ways.  Viva chaos!

random football musings

so barring the playoff that i (and mark and others) champion all the time, this is how the bcs bowls shake out…

-6 confs get their qualifiers (call it fla, texas, lville, iowa, oregon, gtech)

-sec 2nd place team is guaranteed a spot (ala/fla loser, lsu has a shot of that group…but max 2 reps from any conf)

-tcu or boise gets a spot.

which leaves 2 spots (4 BCS bowls + championship game) for

-big 10: potentially 11-1 psu, or if ohio state wins out to take the conference (it can do this!), or 11-1 iowa.  no 3-way tie possible, but a 1 loss big 10 second place team is possible.

-pac-10: 10-2 usc

-undefeated boise state (which will surely be passed by tcu by then)

-notre donk (if they go 10-2 they’re eligible)

-outside shot, a conf champ that loses in the conf title game…since i don’t think a 11-2 georgia tech makes it if they, sec has their spot locked up, b10/beast/p10 don’t do a conf title game, so this really just applies to the remote chance that texas loses to the big 12 north.

I think that sums it up, I can’t think of any other possibilities (am I missing something?  if florida loses 2x + title game, lsu loses to bama + 1 other, alabama wins out, i guess only 1 sec team maybe?), other than stanford winning out to crash the party.

So basically this will likely come down to the undefeated mid-major, 11-1 big 10, 10-2 pac-10, and 10-2 notre dame.  It may be a moo point if one of the mid-majors lose, and if the big 10 thins itself out.  My gut tells me that USC and Notre Dame make it out of that mess, regardless, because their fan bases travel and they have national audiences.  An 11-1 PSU and undefeated Boise are far more (subjectively) deserving based on their resumes, but that’s the way the BCS goes, especially in a rough economic climate.